U.S. County Health Workforce Index
Which U.S. counties show the strongest health-workforce demand signals? The HMG County Demand Index scores every county in the scored universe on a 0–100 composite built entirely from public federal data: HRSA Health Professional Shortage Area (HPSA) designations and scores, CMS provider files (home health, hospice, skilled nursing), BLS QCEW healthcare wages, and Census ACS population and income. It is one answer to questions like “what is the HPSA score by county?” and “where is the nurse and provider shortage most acute?” — packaged as a single ranked table instead of four separate federal lookup tools.
The composite averages four product-line scores (home health, hospice, skilled nursing, and workforce shortage), each a weighted mix of national percentile ranks. The full weights, robustness check, and input vintages are published below. The index is a market-screening tool: not a measure of provider quality, not a growth forecast, and not investment advice.
Top counties by composite demand score
Showing the top 50 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0), generated 2026-07-23. Every score is reproducible from the published component percentiles and weights below.
| Rank | County | State | Composite score | Profile | Key inputs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Prince George's County | MD | 92.4 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 138,054 · 65+ growth +4.41%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #2 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Pierce County | WA | 91.7 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 133,313 · 65+ growth +3.42%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #3 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | King County | WA | 90.8 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 311,368 · 65+ growth +2.8%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #4 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Washoe County | NV | 90.7 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 85,081 · 65+ growth +4.11%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #5 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Honolulu County | HI | 90.3 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 191,464 · 65+ growth +2.76%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #6 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Wake County | NC | 89.8 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 144,054 · 65+ growth +4.96%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #7 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Sacramento County | CA | 89.2 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 236,467 · 65+ growth +3.29%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #8 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Contra Costa County | CA | 88.8 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 193,816 · 65+ growth +2.85%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #9 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Multnomah County | OR | 88.1 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 115,661 · 65+ growth +3.03%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #10 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Dane County | WI | 88.0 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 24 · 65+ pop 83,030 · 65+ growth +4.32%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #11 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Maricopa County | AZ | 87.8 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 718,079 · 65+ growth +3.43%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #11 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Sonoma County | CA | 87.8 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 101,805 · 65+ growth +2.63%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #11 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Snohomish County | WA | 87.8 / 100scored on 25 of 26 components | Large metro | max HPSA 21 · 65+ pop 120,158 · 65+ growth +3.94%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #14 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | San Diego County | CA | 87.7 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 493,837 · 65+ growth +2.52%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #14 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | El Paso County | CO | 87.7 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 24 · 65+ pop 100,642 · 65+ growth +4.01%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #14 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Orange County | FL | 87.7 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 183,681 · 65+ growth +4.17%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #17 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Fulton County | GA | 87.6 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 132,189 · 65+ growth +3.29%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #17 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Montgomery County | MD | 87.6 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 175,080 · 65+ growth +2.99%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #19 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Lee County | FL | 87.5 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 229,480 · 65+ growth +3.3%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #20 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Spokane County | WA | 87.4 / 100scored on 25 of 26 components | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 92,555 · 65+ growth +3.9%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #21 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Riverside County | CA | 87.2 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 371,046 · 65+ growth +2.66%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #21 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Hennepin County | MN | 87.2 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 191,812 · 65+ growth +3.25%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #23 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | New Castle County | DE | 87.1 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 95,161 · 65+ growth +3.15%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #24 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | El Dorado County | CA | 87.0 / 100scored on 25 of 26 components | Large metro | max HPSA 24 · 65+ pop 43,808 · 65+ growth +3.84%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #24 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Manatee County | FL | 87.0 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 22 · 65+ pop 117,425 · 65+ growth +3.66%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #26 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | San Joaquin County | CA | 86.9 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 104,481 · 65+ growth +3.19%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #26 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Travis County | TX | 86.9 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 139,903 · 65+ growth +5.01%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #28 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Duval County | FL | 86.8 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 150,870 · 65+ growth +4.09%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #28 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Salt Lake County | UT | 86.8 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 137,137 · 65+ growth +3.69%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #30 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Pasco County | FL | 86.7 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 129,661 · 65+ growth +2.58%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #31 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Yavapai County | AZ | 86.6 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 80,878 · 65+ growth +4%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #31 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | New York County | NY | 86.6 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 289,340 · 65+ growth +2.28%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #33 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Santa Clara County | CA | 86.3 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 273,921 · 65+ growth +2.23%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #33 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Sussex County | DE | 86.3 / 100scored on 22 of 26 components | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 73,050 · 65+ growth +5.09%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #33 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Hillsborough County | FL | 86.3 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 221,121 · 65+ growth +3.3%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #33 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Sarasota County | FL | 86.3 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 26 · 65+ pop 167,531 · 65+ growth +2.95%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #33 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Kings County | NY | 86.3 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 396,070 · 65+ growth +2.69%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #33 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Mecklenburg County | NC | 86.3 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 132,281 · 65+ growth +3.57%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #39 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Queens County | NY | 86.1 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 399,780 · 65+ growth +3%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #39 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Montgomery County | TX | 86.1 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 88,541 · 65+ growth +5.03%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #41 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Orange County | CA | 86.0 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 24 · 65+ pop 498,997 · 65+ growth +2.65%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #41 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Placer County | CA | 86.0 / 100scored on 25 of 26 components | Large metro | max HPSA 21 · 65+ pop 83,236 · 65+ growth +3.37%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #41 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Jefferson County | CO | 86.0 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 101,082 · 65+ growth +2.86%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #44 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Clackamas County | OR | 85.9 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 20 · 65+ pop 81,683 · 65+ growth +3.61%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #44 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Horry County | SC | 85.9 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 23 · 65+ pop 94,867 · 65+ growth +6.21%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #46 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Alameda County | CA | 85.7 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 246,841 · 65+ growth +2.84%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #46 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Boulder County | CO | 85.7 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 23 · 65+ pop 51,867 · 65+ growth +4.44%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #48 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Washington County | OR | 85.6 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 23 · 65+ pop 86,005 · 65+ growth +3.62%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #49 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Solano County | CA | 85.4 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 25 · 65+ pop 76,287 · 65+ growth +3.64%/yr (6-year change window) |
| #49 of 3,222 counties scored — HMG County Demand Index (cdi-1.0.0) | Cumberland County | ME | 85.4 / 100 | Large metro | max HPSA 23 · 65+ pop 60,648 · 65+ growth +3.79%/yr (6-year change window) |
Values shown as “not available” are not published for that county — we never substitute a made-up number. A 0 is a real observation from the underlying federal file.
Published weights & robustness
Each product-line score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks; the composite is the plain mean of the four product scores. Weights are judgment-based (not fitted) and published in full:
Home health
65+ growth 15% · home-health provider count 25% · max HPSA score 5% · median household income 10% · 65+ population 25% · home-health wages 5% · home-health whitespace 15%
Hospice
65+ growth 20% · hospice provider count 25% · median household income 10% · 65+ population 25% · home-health wages 5% · hospice whitespace 15%
Workforce shortage (HPSA)
65+ growth 10% · HPSA FTE shortage 15% · max HPSA score 30% · 65+ population 15% · supply gap 15% · max healthcare wage 15%
Skilled nursing
65+ growth 10% · SNF provider count 20% · median household income 10% · 65+ population 25% · SNF occupancy 10% · nursing-care wages 10% · SNF-bed whitespace 15%
Robustness check (published with every build): an equal-weight variant of the index reproduces the published ranking at Spearman ρ 0.9733, and 40 of the top 50 counties appear in both variants.
~50% of each product's weight sits on market scale (65+ population) plus incumbent provider count because the verified buyer personas (BD teams, executives, acquirer diligence) scale with incumbents — each provider is a prospective buyer. Material weight on BOTH count and whitespace deliberately implements the U-shape: competitive metros need competitive intel while large-senior thin-supply counties attract entrants. Income carries only 10% because Medicare funds most home-health and hospice care; QCEW wages stay at or below 15% because county-industry cells are frequently suppressed. Weights are judgment, not fitted, and will be revisited against real conversion data post-launch; the sensitivity block publishes how much the ranking depends on them.
Methodology & data vintages
Components are converted to national percentile ranks (0–100, average-rank ties) computed over counties with published values only. 65+ growth uses ACS 5-year 2013-2017 vs 2019-2023 (non-overlapping vintages, 6-year midpoint gap), reported as the 6-year change (exponent 1/6).
Missing data: Missing or suppressed component values are imputed to the 50th percentile for scoring and flagged in completeness.imputed; any rendered rank or score for a county with imputed components must carry the qualifier 'scored on X of Y components'. Provider counts of zero and the absence of any HPSA designation are real observations, not imputations. Raw inputs that are unavailable publish as null and must render as 'not available' — never as a fabricated 0.
Input vintages (verbatim from the build)
- ACS 5-year 2013-2017 — Census ACS 5-year 2013-2017 legacy sequence files (B01001, sequence 0002, per-state All_Geographies_Not_Tracts_Block_Groups) (cached)
- ACS 5-year 2019-2023 — Census ACS 5-year 2019-2023 table-based summary file (B01001 sex-by-age bands summed for 65+, B19013 median household income) — the identical published estimates the Census API serves; pulled from www2.census.gov because the API requires CENSUS_API_KEY (cached)
- Downloaded 2026-07-23 (CMS publishes on its stated refresh cycle) — CMS Provider Data Catalog 6jpm-sxkc (home health agencies) (cached)
- Downloaded 2026-07-23 (CMS publishes on its stated refresh cycle) — CMS Provider Data Catalog yc9t-dgbk (hospice general information) (cached)
- Downloaded 2026-07-23 (CMS publishes on its stated refresh cycle) — CMS Provider Data Catalog 4pq5-n9py (nursing home provider information incl. certified beds and average residents per day) (cached)
- 2023 Gazetteer — Census 2023 Gazetteer county file (names + USPS state) (cached)
- Downloaded 2026-07-23 (HRSA refreshes nightly) — HRSA BCD_HPSA_FCT_DET_{PC,DH,MH}.csv, deduped by (hpsa_id, county_fips); Designated + Proposed-for-Withdrawal rows (cached)
- QCEW 2024 annual averages — BLS QCEW annual averages, NAICS 6216 home health care services, county, private ownership, avg annual pay (cached)
- QCEW 2024 annual averages — BLS QCEW annual averages, NAICS 623 nursing and residential care facilities, county, private ownership, avg annual pay (cached)
- HUD-USPS crosswalk unavailable in this build (no HUD_USPS_API_TOKEN); ZIPs approximated by their 2020 ZCTA and assigned the county with the largest overlapping land area (Census 2020 ZCTA-to-county relationship file). — census-zcta520-county20 (cached)
Index version cdi-1.0.0, generated 2026-07-23. Every published score is reproducible from the published integer component percentiles and the weights above.
Go deeper on one county
The County Health Workforce Brief ($249 per county at launch · pre-launch pricing, subject to change) turns a county's shortage designations, safety-net capacity, and wage context into a single sourced PDF. It isn't for sale yet — look up your county's real data and register to be notified when its brief is ready.
Look up your county & get notifiedOperated by ExtraSphere Media LLC. Built entirely from public federal data (HRSA, CMS, BLS, Census) — no patient data. Not affiliated with or endorsed by HRSA, BLS, or CMS. The HMG County Demand Index is not a measure of provider quality, not a growth forecast, and not investment advice.